Water wars: India, China & the Great Thirst

Saira Kurup, TNN

Countries might wage wars over oil but the most valuable resource in the world is water. It’s the new oil, the colourless gold that’s at a premium because it is becoming scarce.

Today’s nightmare is that tomorrow the glass will be empty because water supplies are fast evaporating on account of population pressures, urbanization and now, climate change. No country is likely to be left untouched, but the great thirst will be felt the most in the region that has the world’s two most populous countries – India and China.

A new study says the situation will be the bleakest in the basins of major Himalayan rivers, ie our own backyards. The study by the Strategic Foresight Group (SFG), Mumbai is titled ‘The Himalayan Challenge’ and frighteningly predicts that “in the next 20 years, the four countries in the Himalayan sub-region (India, Nepal, China, Bangladesh) will face the depletion of almost 275 billion cubic metres of annual renewable water. For comparison, this is more than the total amount of water available in…Nepal at present.”

But why must this region run dry? It is fed by major rivers such as the Yangtze, Indus, Ganges and the Brahmaputra. But the problem is all of them originate in the Tibetan Plateau and will be badly affected by melting glaciers. The report says it may all end very badly because a water deficit will have a cumulative, destructive effect on agricultural production, power generation, food availability and livelihood, forcing all four countries in the sub-region to try and secure water resources. They may even look beyond their borders, leading to geo-political tension.

The point here is interesting. There are global forums that deliberate on oil prices and availability, but disputes over water are generally handled regionally or bilaterally. Sundeep Waslekar, executive director of the SFG laments the basic truth that “there are no global treaties on water. Only 17 nations (which don’t include the four aforementioned) have signed the UN convention on non-navigational uses of international water courses, 1997 (which provides a mechanism to deal with trans-border waters).”

India has bilateral agreements on water. Treaties with Nepal and Bangladesh cover development of the Mahakali river and sharing the waters of the Ganga. But New Delhi has nothing like that with Beijing. If today’s legal and policy architecture were used to deal with any future water dispute, India and China would have nothing more to look to than a couple of MoUs on sharing flood-season hydrological data on the Yarlong Tsangpo/Brahmaputra and the Sutlej/Langquin Zangbu rivers. Former water secretary Ramaswamy Iyer agrees that there is a chasm where there should be formal agreement. Until some years ago, water did not even figure in talks between India and China, he points out.

Retired Colonel P K Gautam, research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, adds that “if China builds a dam on the Brahmaputra now, and we complain about lesser water flows later, it could say that India doesn’t have any projects in the northeast.”

Add to this the current problem of massive water shortages in both countries. This could force both India and China to “securitize” water sources and lead to tension. India is already worried about China’s reported plans to construct a massive 40,000 MW dam at the point where the Brahmaputra takes a U-bend to enter India. Delhi is also concerned about Beijing planning to divert Brahmaputra waters towards China’s arid north.

But B G Verghese, visiting professor at the Centre for Policy Research, says fears about the diversion of water are “highly exaggerated” because the difficult terrain makes it all but impossible to do this.

Waslekar agrees, but says that’s a reprieve that will only last 15 years at the most. He says it could be a window of opportunity, especially as “China’s attitude has changed a little bit, especially towards the Mekong river basin on which it had earlier refused to share data with other affected nations. … it is showing some kind of openness.” So should India try and make joint plans with China for hydropower development and setting up stations in glacial areas to monitor their melting?

Yes, says Gautam. “India should negotiate with China. We need data on the quantum of water flow in the Brahmaputra, on the melting of glaciers.”

The SFG report suggests creating a new regional forum, say a Himalayan rivers commission, to better manage the looming water problem. But like much else, that’s difficult in a region dominated by the trust deficit between countries. The key lies in doing something before the rivers run dry and the taps as well.

Oil and the ‘merciless’ Brahmaputra

Villagers complain there are not enough dampeners to cut the impact of erosion By Subir Bhaumik BBC News, Rohmaria, Assam For most of the past decade, angry villagers in the Rohmaria region of India’s north-eastern state of Assam have not allowed exploitation of rich oil deposits. They are upset with the Assam government – and Delhi – for failing to protect the villages of Rohmaria from the deadly erosion of the mighty Brahmaputra river. “We have nothing against Oil India Limited. But we launched the economic blockade against their oilfields to force the government to undertake bank protection and anti-erosion work,” says Ghanen Gogoi, secretary of the Save Rohmaria committee. “If you pull the ear, the head will follow,” Mr Gogoi says. ‘Beggars’ “The Assam government has done nothing. Neither has Delhi. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh came here before the 2006 state elections and promised action, but we continue to suffer acute bank erosion,” says Rohmaria villager Gopal Saikia. We know India values our oil, it should learn to value our lives, our future Ghanen Gogoi, Save Rohmaria committee Thirty-eight villages in the Rohmaria region have been swallowed up by the Brahmaputra in the past three decades. A government silk farm, a major portion of a key road and two tea estates have vanished into the river, district officials say. More than 300,000 villagers, one-time well-off peasants, have been displaced and now live in abject poverty. The rest fear their luck will also run out soon. “We pray to God to save us but this river is merciless,” says housewife Dipali Gohain, whose small mud house is now barely 500m from the Brahmaputra. “Another year and we will be beggars on the streets,” says Ms Gohain, two toddlers in her lap. Such frustration has fuelled huge anger. “We will not allow the government to take oil from the wells here until they protect the entire Rohmaria region from erosion. They save our villages, we allow them to exploit the oil deposits,” says Mr Gogoi. “We know India values our oil, it should learn to value our lives, our future.” Oil India officials say they have been “caught in the crossfire”. The dispute has led to oil wells in Rohmaria being abandoned “The problem of erosion in Rohmaria is serious and the people are desperate. They tried persuasion with district officials, state government agencies and federal river authorities, but when nothing worked, they turned against our oilfields. That’s unfortunate,” says PK Dev Choudhury, Oil India spokesperson at company headquarters in Duliajan, not far from Rohmaria. On 10 August 1999, Rohmaria villagers stopped production in the four wells (producing 650 barrels of crude a day) drilled by Oil India. Keen to resume production, Oil India tried placating the villagers by designing erosion protection devices known as dampeners from scrap pipes which are capable of reducing the impact of erosion. Thirty-four such dampeners were installed at Rohmaria and the villagers withdrew the oil blockade in January 2004. For two years, all worked well. But as fresh areas of Rohmaria were hit by severe erosion, the villagers asked for the installation of more dampeners. “We want Oil India to install at least 200 dampeners along the 9km (five miles) stretch from Rohmaria to the northern outskirts of Dibrugarh,” says Mr Gogoi. To back this demand, the villagers resumed their blockade in December 2005. Several rounds of dialogue between the Dibrugarh district administration, Oil India officials and the Save Rohmaria committee failed to break the impasse. The blockade was briefly lifted in September 2007, only to be resumed two months later. ‘Acute erosion’ “We are a responsible company which is corporately committed to the all-round development of locations around our operational areas. We want to help these hapless people, but it is beyond our means to undertake river protection and anti-erosion works of such magnitude,” said PK Dev Choudhury. The dispute has been on and off for about a decade Meanwhile the Brahmaputra Board says it is undertaking a major project further upstream of the mighty river on the borders of the states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam to alleviate the problem. “That will help stop the acute river erosion in Rohmaria,” a board official says. But until river erosion actually stops at Rohmaria, the villagers say they will continue their tactic of not allowing Oil India to resume production. “Once we did not have enough refineries to process our crude. Now we don’t have enough crude to refine,” says economist Jayanta Madhav Goswami. It is a challenge for Prime Minister Singh, elected to parliament from Assam, to break the deadlock. His government has pushed oil companies to increase output and has prioritised energy security to ensure the present rate of economic growth is maintained. And for that, the prime minister will have to sort out issues like the ones at Rohmaria to ensure Assam produces enough oil for its refineries.