Pakistan has 100 nuclear weapons, doubled its arsenal

Pakistan has doubled its nuclear arsenal in the last several years and now has more than 100 deployed weapons, more than that of India, the Washington Post reported on Monday. The Pakistanis have significantly accelerated production of uranium and plutonium for bombs and

developed new weapons to deliver them, the influential US daily reported citing estimates by non-government analysts. After years of approximate weapons parity, Pakistan has now edged ahead of India, its nuclear-armed rival, experts cited by the Post said.
While Pakistan has produced more nuclear-armed weapons, India is believed to have larger existing stockpiles of such fissile material for future weapons. Four years ago, the Pakistani arsenal was estimated at 30 to 60 weapons, the Post said.

Those figures make Pakistan the world’s fifth-largest nuclear power, ahead of “legal” powers France and Britain, the Post said. The vast bulk of nuclear stockpiles are held by the United States and Russia, followed by China.

Pakistan has no declared nuclear doctrine, but sees its arsenal as a deterrent to an attack by the Indian forces that are heavily deployed near its border, the daily said. India, on the other hand, has vowed no-first-use of nuclear weapons, but it depends on its second-strike capability to deter the Pakistanis, the paper said.

“They have been expanding pretty rapidly,” David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security and a leading analyst on the world’s nuclear forces, was quoted as saying. “They’re always trying to downplay” the numbers and insisting that “it’s smaller than you think.”

Based on recently accelerated production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, he said, “they could have more than doubled in that period,” with current estimates of up to 110 weapons.

The Post cited Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists and author of the annual global nuclear weapons inventory published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, as saying it was “not unreasonable” to say that Pakistan has now produced at least 100 weapons.

Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Britain’s University of Bradford, put the number at between 100 and 110.

Some Pakistani officials have intimated they have even more, the Post said. But just as the United States has a vested interest in publicly playing down the total, Pakistan sees advantage in “playing up the number of weapons they’ve got,” Gregory said.

“They’re at a disadvantage with India with conventional forces,” in terms of both weaponry and personnel.

While continuing to produce weapons-grade uranium at two sites, Pakistan has sharply increased its production of plutonium, allowing it to make lighter warheads for more mobile delivery systems, the Post said.

Only three nuclear countries – Pakistan, India and Israel – have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India is estimated to have 60 to 100 weapons; numbers are even less precise for Israel’s undeclared programme, estimated at up to 200., said the paper which appeared to have done considerable research on this sensitive subject.

Pakistan has better delivery system: US

By Anwar Iqbal

WASHINGTON: Pakistan doesn’t only have more warheads and fissile material than India but also better delivery systems for such weapons, says a report by the Federation of American Scientists.

Pakistan, in comparison to India, has always been ahead in warheads, fissile material and delivery systems: FAS report.-Photo by Reuters

“As far as I can gauge, apart from nuclear testing where India started first, Pakistan has always been a little ahead in warheads, fissile material and delivery systems,” says Hans M. Kristensen, director of the FAS nuclear information project. FAS was founded in 1945 by scientists who worked on the Manhattan project to develop the first atomic bombs.

Later, they dedicated themselves to informing public policy-makers of potential dangers from scientific and technological advances. In his latest write-up for FAS, Mr Kristensen observes that neither India nor Pakistan could claim any nuclear moral high ground.

“Both are increasing their nuclear arsenals, both are producing more fissile material for nuclear weapons, and both are diversifying the means to deliver nuclear weapons and extending their range,” he says.

He notes that the two countries are now at a warhead level about equal to that of Israel (80 warheads). But whereas it took Israel 40 years to reach that level, India and Pakistan have done so in only 12 years, and they’re apparently not done yet. Mr Kristensen is also co-author of the ‘Nuclear Notebook’ column in the ‘Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’, which claims to be the most accurate source of information on nuclear weapons and weapon facilities available to the public.

Mr Kristensen says that Indian and Pakistani security will be served better by trying soon to define just how big a nuclear force is sufficient for minimum deterrence. He urges both to engage in “prudent planning” to avoid taking their nuclear arsenals to a new and more dangerous level.

“Although neither government wants to say so publicly, India and Pakistan are in effect in a nuclear arms race. It might not be of the intensity of the Cold War arms race between the Soviet Union and the United States, but it is a race nonetheless for capability and systems,” he warns.

Separately, Mr Kristensen and a fellow researcher Robert Norris have also published a report, saying that apparently India has assembled 60-80 warheads and produced enough fissile material for 60-105 warheads.

Pakistan is estimated to have assembled 70-90 warheads and has produced fissile material for 90 warheads.

The report, “Global Nuclear Weapons Inventories, 1945-2010″, published in the latest edition of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, notes that the majority of India’s and Pakistan’s warheads are not yet operationally deployed. But both countries continue to increase their stockpiles.

According to the report, of the roughly 22,400 intact nuclear warheads dispersed across the nine nuclear-armed nations, roughly 8,000 are operational to some degree.Roughly 1,880 weapons are on alert: 960 in Russia, 810 in the United States, 64 in France and 48 in the United Kingdom, according to the report.

The US Defence Department is believed to hold 2,468 operational warheads and 2,600 stockpiled weapons. Between 3,500 and 4,500 US warheads are slated for disassembly by 2022 at the Pantex Plant in Texas.

Russia is believed to possess around 12,000 intact warheads, with roughly 4,650 strategic and tactical weapons in operation, according to the report.

Britain has about 225 warheads for delivery by Trident 2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles aboard Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.

The British government, however, says that ‘fewer than 160′ of the warheads are operationally available, and only one ballistic-missile submarine with up to 48 warheads is on patrol at any given time.

France maintains a stockpile of roughly 300 nuclear warheads, with the great majority if not all on operational status.
The report notes that a large portion of China’s strategic nuclear arsenal is intended for “regional use”.

The report, however, points out that the status of a Chinese non-strategic nuclear arsenal is uncertain, and China’s deployed warheads are not thought to be fully operational (that is, mated with delivery systems).

China holds additional warheads in storage, for a total stockpile of approximately 240 warheads.Israel, which has neither acknowledged nor denied keeping nuclear weapons, held around 80 warheads. The nation could possess enough nuclear-weapon material for use in 115-190 warheads.

North Korea has carried out two nuclear tests and generated enough plutonium for use in eight to 12 weapons, but the nation has not proven to date that it has fully incorporated the material into usable bombs.