Understanding Gwadar Port

June 11, 2013

By Ghalib Sultan

Recently there has been some criticism of the strategic decision to build Gwadar port. In fact one critic has called the Port a – cruel joke. It is therefore important that we marshal some facts and then decide whether Gwadar was in Pakistan’s interest or not. It is important to get this right because future policies of the new government will depend on how we view Gwadar.

The usual criteria for a port have been listed and it is being said that Gwadar does not meet these criteria. However, there are hundreds of ports which meet these criteria but are of negligible significance. On the other hand some of the world’s most successful ports do not meet these criteria. There was huge skepticism when the 50 – berth Jabel Ali port was conceived. It met none of these criteria. In fact it was just a sandy beach with no infrastructure, no communications network, no population, no thriving hinterland, no areas of production, no water, power, roads, rail roads etc at all. Today it is a hugely thriving port.

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Tacstrat Analysis: Building peace in Af-Pak

June 10, 2013

Tacstrat Analysis

Who are the key players in the Af-Pak conundrum? First of all, the states of Afghanistan and Pakistan, which implies their respective elected governments, can be considered the main stakeholders. But unlike the banal diplomatic progression observed between sovereign states the Af-Pak tango surpasses tiers of complexity. Armies, economies, independent terror groups, opposition in politics and ideology, and neighboring countries combine to form a complex blend of interaction. With the new government elected in Pakistan, a balance between civil and military power, the keenness of terrorist groups to cooperate with the said governments, and of course the ability of Pakistan’s newly elected government to cooperate with US and the Karzai government will determine the well being of Af-Pak and the region.

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ZoneAsia-Pk: 21st Century Revolutions 101

June 4, 2013

By Zara Zulfiqar
ZoneAsia-Pk

Our generation, in a matter of two to three decades has witnessed the impossible and astounding. From hand written letters, to phone calls, emails, cell phones and social networks, modes of communication have diversified, expanded and created based on our constant desire to attain more in less time. Today, the world news is only a click away, the latest update a tweet away, and commotion or motion a photograph away. In Pakistan we have experienced the proliferation of media and information sources. Depth has been replaced by diversity. All required knowledge is a talk show away. The sharpest of minds sit together and discuss issues from social to those of national importance.

Amidst this hoo-ha of information proliferation, it is vital to acknowledge the degree to which exposure shapes public opinion. Media, popularly believed to be the fourth pillar, the watchdog of the democratic setup, needs to be called out frequently enough. Similarly, the latest addition to all things revolutionary is Social Media, where twitter, Facebook and Tumblr can combine powers to create force more momentous than mainstream media can muster to form.

The recent Arab Spring that got picked by Western mainstream media, and the powers of the globe realized that tweets can speak louder than words did Arab nations finally get liberated. Regardless of geographical location, historical context and racial undertones, the success or failure of recent uprisings is determined not by the level of oppression they’ve undergone, but the extent to which Western Media has chosen to pick them. Sounds like a conspiracy theory? Let’s look at the recent Turkish revolt, where a few thousand have gathered to protest against Islamic rules of the State. They are demanding Prime Minister Erdogan to step down. The West has labeled this the Turkish Spring, while Erdogan has ignored it.

Turkey’s situation in the international context resonates well with this sudden need for internal disruption. The country has just paid their last IMF installment, loan free, and ready to pursue European Union aspirations. Once the country meets the economic merit social instability must also be addressed. In this case Erdogan might just lose out. The level of coverage media chooses to give any issue (determined by external interests) dictates the seriousness of any matter. The protests at Teen Talwar in Karachi were presumably no less in seriousness or numbers, but because stability in Pakistan and support for the Sharif government suits the bigger agenda in the region, these revolutionaries didn’t get heard on the same level.

Other examples of revolutions are Arab Revolutions (save Saudi Arabis) the Green Movement in Iran, Syria, and Balochistan nationalism. Among the non-issues are Palestine, Kashmir, Rohingya of Myanmar, India’s Chhattisgarh uprising, and of course, Guantanamo Bay. The factors determining issues versus non issues seems to be very Western-centric. Hence a façade of political stability and control is maintained in selective parts of the World. It is quite bizarre how monopoly over narratives can be used to skew public opinion to a point that nation states can be coerced to conform. International mainstream media has created a monopoly over information and assumed credibility by virtue of being pioneers of the game.


BREAKING NEWS

May 28, 2013

By Ahsan Waheed
Originally Posted: Area 14/8

Several interesting developments seem to be taking place as the post election scenario moves to the swearing in of the new federal and provincial governments. The electronic and print media is going bananas reporting the kaleidoscope of events as they unfold. It would be instructive to review some of the more significant stories.

It seems the old guard of the PML(N) is all set to come back at the federal level and in Punjab. This was,of course expected but one was hoping against hope that there would be at least a few new faces. Names of known criminals and religious fanatics are being mentioned as having wormed themselves in to the political mainstream on PML(N) tickets and this plus the PML(N)’s soft stance on the Taliban is leading to the speculation that the PML(N) government may take a hard right turn for survival and to appease their friends the Saudis – especially if the reports of billions being doled out by them are true.

There are reports of bureaucrats being selected by a former bureaucrat closely tied to the PML(N) leadership. Competency and merit would be far more important considerations if the government is to gain credibility through governance. So far there is no sign of any significant policy making activity nor is the issue of the public sector enterprises being addressed in spite of the losses being sustained and the various mafias within them operating with impunity. PIA recently made a spectacle of itself in London by failing to control two unruly passengers – and this in spite of the large numbers in the cabin crew – maybe the poor quality and shortage of food being reported by passengers was the trigger.

One report has it that a policy to permit duty free import of hybrid cars is being considered to ease the CNG shortage and misuse. If true then this would be another hare brained scheme like the earlier yellow cab disaster. The terrible tragedy in Gujranwala where a CNG fitted unsafe van exploded burning children alive should have been a game changing event but no one has moved a muscle beyond the standard platitudes. CNG needs to be banned in vehicles. If hybrid car import is to be encouraged then a proper policy of import and domestic production must be evolved. Populist knee jerk utterances are not required. In any case future tragedies must be averted by enforcing safety standards and laws.

There are reports of various measures being taken to address the horrendous electricity shortage that is causing untold misery and loss. No one seems to know exactly what is happening and TV anchors besides trying to resolve political issues are also trying to figure out an answer to this crisis. A white paper laying out the unvarnished truth would help more than various speculative reports of Saudi oil and plans to jump start dead projects or THAR coal being the final answer or alternatives like solar energy being an option besides cutting the losses.

The Yaum e Takbeer being celebrated with gusto and the PML(N) hogging the limelight needs to be tempered with some cold logic. Is this something to celebrate? Does any other country do so? Is it proper to have models of the nuclear test site all over the place? Should scientists be paraded around to crow about their individual achievements? Can a country with nuclear weapons be in economic decline,politically unstable and under threat from militancy and radicalism? If our nuclear tests were security driven in response to India’s tests and if we want to retain this capability as a deterrent to balance the threat from India then surely we need to be quietly professional and restrained and not shouting our heads off from roof tops.

A Special Envoy from India has met our Prime Minister elect with a special message from the Indian Prime Minister. This is probably to reciprocate the enthusiasm shown by our incoming Prime Minister for better relations with India. These are good positive developments but the larger picture in the region and beyond has to be the backdrop for this important bilateral relationship. The Chairman of the Indian Policy Advisory Board and a former Foreign Secretary Mr Shyam Saran has very recently laid out India’s views about are nuclear ambitions and a more distorted picture would be hard to come by. While laying the blame at Pakistan’s door for any future nuclear event he conveniently forgets that India tested first and that the discriminatory US-India Nuclear Agreement and the exemption by the NSG,as well as India’s SLBM and BMD ambitions are the real drivers behind the escalatory trends in the sub-continent. There is also the perception that India uses Afghanistan to destabilize Pakistan. All this and much more has to be factored into the bilateral relationship.

Much is being said about the talks with the TTP but very little is being revealed about how and on what basis these talks are going to be held given the stated stance of the TTP. The Maulana who is being made the go-between has very little credibility and is already setting pre-conditions for the talks like an assurance from the military! Such decisions are best made in forums where there can be an inclusive and informed debate and discussion. In fact what is needed is a forum for formal civil-military interaction and policy decision making.


ZoneAsia-Pk: Democracy Roars?

May 24, 2013

By Minahil K.
ZoneAsia-Pk

The triumph of the tiger whilst a seemingly déjà vu experience, marks a new era in the democratic history of Pakistan. Pakistan’s 65-year narrative has taken a turn for the better: the nation has explicitly expressed its will to survive as it exercised its voting rights and a government has completed its five year tenure. A care-taker set-up is in place, anxiously waiting to hand over the burden of state responsibility to the victor. The care-takers with their lack of public mandate have managed to keep things buoyant and have on purpose, refrained from tackling difficult challenges. Perhaps, it is this role only that is suited to them and the bold decision-making falls best within the domain of a government that is voted into power by the masses.

The tiger, though a solitary hunter in its natural habitat now has to carefully select a pack to legitimize the awarded mandate. There are no official announcements as yet but the rumor mills are abuzz with talk of possibilities. While the nation speculates and finds entertainment in placing bets on the likely inductees, it is important to be well-informed about the credentials of the key cubs in question.

Read more…


ZoneAsia-Pk: 100 billion dollars in a wink!

May 17, 2013

By Enum Naseer
ZoneAsia-Pk

The country is passing through a decisive period in history and this time, it’s not a false alarm- it’s a make or break situation. What is trifling in the current context is that the economy (according to Gallup Pakistan) gets only 6% of on-air time in talk shows. It is generally posited that talking about the economy can be a dry, even boring exercise for audiences that have in recent years found the sensationalism in mainstream talk shows addictive and that a discussion of the economy should be reserved for Sunday brunches in elite circles is very telling. Even though there is little point in asserting the all-pervasive effects of economic policies and its ubiquitous shadow in the daily troubles of the average Joe, it is needed. If the people don’t take interest and if the debate becomes an elitist pastime, what incentive is there for governments today and in the future, to awaken from their catatonic stupor?

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ZoneAsia-Pk: THE SHARIF ‘SIAPA’

May 15, 2013

By Ghalib Sultan
ZoneAsia-Pk

‘Siapa’ is a wonderfully expressive Punjabi word almost impossible to accurately translate into English. It means a development or situation full of interconnected problems, difficulties, contradictions and intrigues – not easy to resolve and not easy to live with. Why should the elections that catapulted the Sharifs to power be a ‘siapa’?

For starters there is the track record of their past stints in power. The first time around they had a President who was a thorough gentleman dedicated to democracy and ready to help them govern. There was also an army Chief who was a thorough professional with zero interest in politics ready to support in every way. The elder Sharif went into totally unnecessary confrontations with them egged on with the sycophants and jesters around him. He took the situation to the point where there was a ludicrous confrontation between the institutions that were a phone call away from each other. The result was an Army brokered arrangement with both the President and the Sharif departing ignominiously.

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Spearhead Analysis: Pakistan’s dance with the democracy

May 10, 2013

By Zoon Ahmad Khan, Enum Naseer & Sarah Eleazar
Research Analysts, Spearhead Research – Pakistan

As the Pakistani voter heads for the polling station tomorrow, on May 11, 2013, Pakistan will for the first time in history, allow an elected government to complete its tenure. Despite the multiple and enormous challenges it faces, the nation sees itself united and hopeful for strong stable years to come and democracy to mature. The transition has not been an easy one.

The nation has spent a considerable time under military dictatorships and is currently struggling to keep multiple crises at bay. While rooting for the ideals of democracy has its place and will go a long way in paving way for robust and independent institutions, a true understanding of the metamorphosis is essential in order to internalize democratic values.

Following is an analysis of political discourse, security dilemmas and the economic backdrop behind each election conducted in the country so far. With the aim that reading trends and appreciating lessons from history will help create a more informed opinion.

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FP Analysis: The Population Bomb

May 3, 2013

By Enum Naseer
FOR PAKISTAN

It is simple economics: resources are scarce and wants are unlimited. The problem of allocation gets more serious when population growth is unchecked- as is the case in Pakistan. It is confusing hence, that no one has taken the pains to voice the issue in the mainstream media; no political party mentioned it in its rallies; no slogans or chants went further than the usual clichés. While the future leaders and the public busy themselves with the task of wooing and being wooed, the population bomb ticks away. The promises and plans, albeit optimistic and hopeful, evade the population issue almost strategically. It is as if the fact that the unrestrained population growth will have an undesirable impact on the distribution of resources like food has gone unnoticed. Or more so perhaps, the problem has been brushed under the carpet for fear that it may give rise to an uncomfortable debate?

Read more….


Who will catch the big fish?

April 11, 2013

By Zara Zulfiqar
ZoneAsia-Pk

In Pakistan we believe, not in addressing causes, but getting overwhelmed by effects. Our law makers know they can’t execute well thought out policies effectively, so they just trim the weeds to make them look like grass. Not realizing unless the weed is uprooted it will grow back, and create room for more of its kind. We have seen it in the routine network jams that major cities experience every Eid, any holiday, even some Jummas. Another example is banning of ‘double sawari’, Basant, one wheeling. Most of us have come to terms with this bizarre system of ‘damage control’.

I have frequently heard people gab on ‘so what if it saves lives?’ Ethically speaking I’d rather be deprived of the luxury to text for a day than have a few dozen dying in a bomb blast. But the issue is not the inconvenience, rather the lazy psyche behind it. It takes almost no effort, and leaves the big fish swimming free, finding loopholes in these second grade solutions our law makers come up with. Such solutions are like allopathic medication, antibiotics, and antidepressants. They should be the last resort because your body becomes immune to the dose, and heavier doses are required to have the same effect. Not to mention they have severe side effects. Essentially they are making your body more and more dependent and continue to take a toll on normal bodily functions.

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PAKISTAN SHAMED!!

March 13, 2013

By Ghalib Sultan
Area 14/8

The picture on top says it all. A mob in the background and an exultant youth in the foreground with smoke, fire and burning homes all around. This was the scene in the heart of Lahore when Christian homes were set on fire because of alleged blasphemy by a Christian who had already been booked under the Blasphemy Law by the police on the complaint of a Muslim. The mob that went on the rampage looting and burning homes was apparently venting their rage. No one died and no injuries were reported but Pakistan’s image was destroyed beyond repair-collateral damage from the point of view of the bigoted and the intolerant but a mortal blow to Pakistan for those whose heads hung in shame.

Now that the smoke has blown away, compensatory payments made to those who lost everything, the rebuilding process begun and some arrests made a clearer picture is slowly emerging. The Police advised the people to run for their lives hours before the mob arrived and they ran-the men, the women, the aged and the children all ran for their lives in all directions away from their homes leaving everything behind. Why did the police do this-to facilitate looting and burning, to save lives or because they did not want or could not face down the mob to protect lives and property? If the Police had advance information did this information flow upwards and if it did was it ignored? And if it did not then why not?

There are credible reports that the mob came prepared for their grisly task—with sticks, stones, gasoline cans etc. If so then this was no spontaneous venting of rage. This was a well planned event for which a large number of people had been mustered and prepared. If this was planned then who was behind it?- those who wanted the land on which the colony was built?- or those who had political motives and wanted to undermine the political administration in Punjab or was it a combination of both?. The land mafia would have known the consequences of such an atrocity and it is unlikely that they actually believed that the land would fall in their lap after the pillage. The political motive is more plausible and is also borne out by the fact that after the attack on the Christians some apparently counter attacks were organized on the pride and joy of the Punjab government-the new Metrobus system.

The Punjab government moved quickly to limit the damage and to begin rehabilitation work. An inquiry has also been ordered and arrests made. No doubt that there has been political fall-out but on the positive side people have rallied in support of the Christian community and against the forces of bigotry and intolerance that exist in society. There have been many previous incidents of this kind but never has exemplary punishment been awarded to deter such behavior. In the final analysis the blame must also go to people who are ready to undertake such criminal and reprehensible behavior.


Tacstrat Analysis: The Haqqani question

March 1, 2013

Tacstrat Analysis

Many analysts have taken up various positions on the subject of the United States, Pakistan and the controversial Haqqani Network. Tough calls have demanded that Pakistan be declared a rogue state, all aid suspended to the country and sanctions imposed. Others digress and say sanctions on Pakistan did not really work. Not only did Pakistan successfully test its nuclear capabilities, the economic toll of the sanctions nearly led to the breaking up of the small state. Unemployment rose exponentially, political tensions led to the overthrow of a democratic government and resulted in a military leadership that ruled over the country for another 9 years. Setting aside the age-old debate on whether sanctions really do work, one must accept the fact that sanctions, in Pakistan’s case, are not a pragmatic option.

As recently as March 1, the United States government has flexed its muscle over the Iran-Pakistan pipeline deal and implied, with strong undertones, that Pakistan should avoid any activity that would invite sanctions. Realistically speaking, the United States in unlikely to impose any such sanctions, over Iran OR the Haqqani Network.

Read more…


Confused Mr. Sehbai

February 28, 2013

ZoneAsia-Pk

It seems Mr Sehbai is not clear in his own mind about the role he wants the Army to play. He blames Gen Kayani for sitting on the sidelines and letting the country slide into the current mess. Yet he blames 10 years of Army rule which incidentally except for first three years of Musharraf was actually run by politicians allied with Musharraf , for a bad legacy for the current rulers. He calls Gen Kayani a Gorbachev for letting Pakistan reach this failed state situation but at the same time is against Army intervention. It seems he is constrained by the oft repeated slogan of Democracy is our future irrespective of the results that we are reaping. I think Gen Kayani has done well to clarify so many doubts sown about the Army actions/ inactions spread by our media. By talking directly to the media and clarifying the Army role in the last 5 years, he has briefed them about the true state of affairs. Hopefully this should at least reduce the unjustified criticism and doubts about the Army,s role and specially his own role as Chief . Let this election bring up some fresh and well meaning leadership for if that does not happen, we should have a fresh look at our systems specially our brand of parliamentary democracy which has failed again and again in providing good Government to the country. Gen Kayani has brought some truths to the notice of our opinion makers. Let it not be said by any one that he/ she did not know these things. Now it is upto our media to educate our public on all major issues facing the country.

General Kayani spills the beans, blames others, raises doubts

Shaheen Sehbai
Thursday, February 28, 2013

General Kayani has finally spoken his heart out and the information trickling out from the not so off-the-record four-hour briefing is revealing as well as a cause for serious concern and a warning for the civilians and the country.

The bottom line General Kayani gave was that he wants free and fair elections and a peaceful transfer of power and everyone must respect the mandate of the people and for this the army will provide the maximum help, but only that much which is asked for by the civilians.

So in other words what the general said repeatedly was that no one should try to play games with the transparency and fairness of the elections and the results must be accepted but the army will not impose itself in any way and this job has to be done by the civilians themselves.

Yet while confirming that the army has pulled out of these, and almost all other, matters in the civilian domain, General Kayani gave a long list of civilian failures, almost a charge sheet against the politicians and the government and placed the blame of gigantic failures in many critical domains at the civilian doorstep.

Not to intervene is constitutionally and practically a very positive and constructive approach but in reality it has brought the country to the verge of a collapse and General Kayani realises that but does not want to share the blame.

Examples of the civilians’ failure that he quoted, in his own soft style and in a non-intrusive way, were many but a cool analysis of his thoughts and ideas reveals he has told the government and politicians they had messed up in a big way and no more of this mess-up can be afforded.

For instance, he says on the key issue of war against terrorism, the army is not to be blamed but the civilians have not formulated a comprehensive anti-terrorism policy and they could not decide what to do. They threw the ball in the court of the army without giving them policy guidelines, the targets to be achieved and the way that was to be done.

Repeatedly, he said that the army had not been consulted or taken on board about the political all parties conferences being held on counter terrorism.

General Kayani, in this context, quoted many examples and reminded the media men of the Swat situation where he said the President was persuaded by him to take a decision. He also took ANP leader Asfandyar Wali to the President and when the decision was taken to talk to Maulana Sufi Mohammed, the talks were held but when he violated the accord, an operation was launched. Then the civilians had to take over the responsibility which, he implied, they did not.

General Kayani specifically mentioned the arrests made in Swat and complained that if the arrested persons are not convicted because of lack of evidence, the army cannot hold them forever. For three-and-a-half years it is holding these people and is either violating laws by doing so or risks more terrorism if they are released.

Likewise, in Balochistan, General Kayani said, an army operation could be launched only if the civilians take that decision and order the army to do so. But once the operation is done and people are arrested, they will again have to be tried and convicted by the police and courts for which the civilians are not prepared and ready.

Similarly, he said the civilians depend too much and remain forever scared of the ISI and army intelligence agencies whereas the tasks should have been done by their own agencies.

All internal matters have to be handled by the civilians as the ISI has to look after external intelligence threats and the army has to secure borders. Where are the civilian agencies? he asked, in so many words, though politely.

General Kayani’s talk was almost a report card of failure of the interior ministry but he said in so many words that for five years the army took all these failures in its stride, and sometimes guided the civilians to reform and take ownership and responsibility yet did not intervene to stop the rot.

In my view, this was a very considered and deliberate policy as General Kayani and his colleagues knew the capacity of the civilians. They knew that these politicians will not be able to handle such colossal issues like the war on terror, the Balochistan mess, the fight against domestic extremism and fanaticism but they left everything to these immature and inexperienced or incompetent politicians so that the army may not be blamed and the onus of the disaster falls on the civilians.

Now he has explained his five years of non-interference by the army, failure of the civilians to cope and the resultant disasters in a four-hour session which can be summed up in one line: “Don’t blame us. Do something if you can.”

The tragedy is that General Kayani knows well that the 10 years of General Musharraf and the total dominance of the army, the persecution of politicians, the disarray in the political system, the physical threats to political leaders, their assassinations and mass murders, all meant that the politicians were not ready, although they had been voted into power because an election was held and that too under the threat of mass rebellion after Benazir Bhutto’s murder.

So there was no way the army could avoid an election but there was no way the civilians could correct everything messy that the generals were leaving behind.

Similar is the issue with the present elections. General Kayani is now saying that elections must be free, fair and transparent but the set-up that has been put in place is controversial, weak and fragile, weakest at the top.

In his four-hour talk he referred to this weakness of the ECP in his own way by recalling the famous meeting between him and Fakhru Bhai in which a briefing was given by the army to the CEC for over two hours but at the end Fakhru Bhai did not recognise General Kayani.

“Yes I am General Kayani” he told the ageing CEC but then also recalled the story of Alif Laila and the joke associated with it when after the whole night someone asked: “Was Zulekha a man or a woman”.

By referring to Fakhru Bhai and speaking about his age and his capacity, General Kayani indirectly expressed doubts that he can handle such a gigantic task of holding the election. He also knows that politicians have nominated the other four members of the ECP and they are political nominees who can, and may, play games for their sponsors.

So when he says that elections must be fair and free, he is again shifting the blame to the civilians while knowing that they do not mean a fair business and they will do the mischief in their own ways. He is not ready to interfere but is only asking them not to try. Yet he has walked out of providing army cover to the polls saying he cannot spare 200,000 troops. Fakhru Bhai has been left high and dry, on his own.

So if the politicians don’t listen to the army chief, the bottom line is that nothing will happen. Kayani has already, and in the same meeting, announced that he will retire later this year, or just after a few months after the elections. The politicians can even cut that period short by announcing his replacement three months ahead of the date. So the politicians will play around and the general will go home, leaving the mess for the people to face.

His clearest warning was on the economy and again he blamed the civilians entirely for the failure. He recounted so many instances and asked do you blame the army for this, for that and for everything. He, however, allowed the corrupt civilians to do the damage before his own eyes.

The media lot sitting in front of him, it looks, did not disagree with him on this count. But a pile of dirt, mixed with filth and stink left behind by the army after years of misrule cannot be cleared so easily, when the army pulls itself into a corner and does not stop even the most glaring and blatant violations of the laws and Constitution.

What General Kayani could have done, and has not done, was to strengthen and reassure the institutions which can check the incompetent civilians to place strong checks and corrections at every stage, so that things would not have come so near to collapse. When General Kayani retires, as he would in a few months later this year, he would be judged as another leader of the Gorbachev kind. Will he like to be called General Gorbachev?

Source: The News


Sheikh Waqas speech against “sipah sahaba”Mullahs

February 20, 2013

Area 14/8

An extremely powerful speech by a Pakistani Politician against religious extremists and hypocrites pretending to be saviors of Islam and Pakistan.


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