Spearhead Analysis: Elections held hostage

By Nida Afaque
SPEARHEAD RESEARCH

As elections draw near, the political climate within Pakistan has turned sober. Contesting parties are working industriously to widen their voter base, the Election Commission is overworked with verifying candidates’ credibility and the interim government is struggling to contain the country’s affairs until the next government is ready to take charge. But there is another kind of force, one that is becoming more elusive than ever, which is busy opposing efforts to a peaceful democratic transition.

These anti-state forces have been involved in harmful activities for quite long. Pakistan has had to pay the price of these terrorist elements through money, blood and an overall loss of security. Since the beginning of this year, the weekly death toll averages 175, with most violence concentrated in Karachi, Baluchistan, KPK and FATA. Various religious extremists like Jundullah, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and most commonly, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have been found responsible for the attacks on senior politicians and government and security buildings across the country. Other civil separatist movements like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) have targeted government officials and security personnel.

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Why the ISI has played a silent spectator to the CIA/Black Water operations?

By Yousuf Nazar

I have suspected for long that the United States has been conducting false flag operations in Pakistan through covert operatives. I wrote on my blog on January 10, 2008, Could CIA be conducting Operation Gladio in Pakistan?

False flag operations are covert operations designed to deceive the public in such a way that the operations appear as though they are being carried out by other entities. The name is derived from the military concept of flying false colors; that is, flying the flag of a country other than one’s own. False flag operations are not limited to war and counter-insurgency operations, and can be used in peace-time. Operation Gladio was a covert operations project conducted by the UK and UK intelligence during the 1960s in Europe and involved massacres and bombing conducted by the covert operatives of these agencies with the objective of blaming them on the communist Soviet Union and discrediting it.

On December 11, 2009, the Guardian published a story, “Blackwater operating at CIA Pakistan base”, which said:

“the US contractor Blackwater was operating in Pakistan at a secret CIA airfield used for launching drone attacks, according to a former US official, despite repeated government denials that the company is in the country.The official, who had direct knowledge of the operation, said that employees with Blackwater, now renamed Xe Services, patrol the area round the Shamsi airbase in Baluchistan province.He also confirmed that Blackwater employees help to load laser-guided Hellfire missiles on to CIA-operated drones,”

On September 16, 2010, noted investigative journalist Wayne Madsen published an article in the Online Journal titled, ” Blackwater/Xe cells conducting false flag terrorist attacks in Pakistan.” The author of the Wasden Report (who formerly worked for the US Navy and the State Department) claimed that he has learned from a deep background source that Xe Services, the company formerly known as Blackwater, has been conducting false flag terrorist attacks in Pakistan that are later blamed on “Pakistani Taliban” and noted that only recently did the US State Department designate the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as terrorist organization.

On March 17, 2011, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an uncharacteristically candid and realistic article, “Perfidious America” declaring that the [Raymond] Davis case has knocked Washington off the moral high ground in Pakistan. It is probably for the first time that a pro-establishment American paper such as the WSJ acknowledged that ‘suspicions of Pakistanis about the US operations in Pakistan have a basis in reality’ noting that in his book “Obama’s Wars,” Bob Woodward revealed the existence of a secret 3,000-strong army of paramilitary Afghan fighters created by the CIA to target Taliban and al Qaeda commanders inside Pakistan through “false flag attacks.” Recall that the Wikileaks had revealed that President Zardari had told Richard Halbrooke that he suspected that the US was destabilizing Pakistan through the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.

Former Indian Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar in an article published by the AsiaTimes (February 15, 2011) pointed out that “the heart of the matter is that Pakistan has been wondering for a long time who it is who could be instigating the so-called “Pakistani Taliban” to inflict such bloody wounds on the Pakistani military and weaken and incrementally destabilize the Pakistani state” and concluded that Davis can most certainly provide the proverbial “missing link” to Pakistan to connect several dots on an intriguing chessboard. Ambassador Bhadrakumar had also noted that that Davis’ detention sent alarm bells ringing all the way to the White House and the US was apprehensive that the Davis case had the potential to shake up the very foundations of its alliance with Pakistan.

So the most important question to come out of the Raymond Davis, as I wrote in the Express Tribune on February 28, 2011, is not whether he killed in self-defense or not, whether the ISI manipulated the media or not, whether he was an accredited diplomat or not, whether he enjoyed diplomatic or consular immunity or not, or whether he was spy or a CIA contractor.

The most critical question is what hundreds of CIA agents (according to scores of reports including those carried by top US papers recently) are doing in Pakistan, and why they were provided cover by an embassy whose facilities are being upgraded by a massive spending program exceeding one billion dollars, according to official US documents, as either the ISI looked the other way or was sleeping.

Going further, given the dirty and murky CIA-ISI deal that resulted in the release of Raymond Davis, the most important question seems to be why the civilian and military leaders of Pakistan have kept silent, at the least, and therefore have been complicit in the false flag operations against the state and the people of Pakistan despite the fact that the head of the state had expressed his suspicions that the CIA was behind some the terrorist attacks. The nation and the super-patriots that our TV anchors are ought to tell General Kayani that issuing press statement condemning drone attacks can no longer fool the people. The masses may be silent and may feel helpless for now but the time will come when they will ask loudly, why did you co-operate with the Americans when you knew they were upto no good?

A resilient nation

Ikram Sehgal

To paraphrase Mark Twain: “Rumours about Pakistan’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.” By any measure, the country has defied the odds, and we are one of the most resilient nations on earth. How many nations are capable of surviving the manmade and natural catastrophes that we are periodically subjected to, not counting the disaster that is our democratic leadership? Even incurable optimists like me do not cease to wonder at our inherent ability to rise from the ashes. Something like Razzak’s amazing century the other day in Abu Dhabi.

In 2009, parliament (which is “supreme”) voluntarily surrendered sovereign authority in Swat, with hardly any debate and in less than one day. The public mask for the evil designs of Fazlullah, his murderous son-in-law, Sufi Mohammad gave away the jihadis’ hand by publicly heaping scorn on the Supreme Court. For good measure, he added that the militants did not recognise the country’s Constitution. Had the media darling of that time not shot off his mouth prematurely, Swat’s population would today be subject to the Fazlullah brand of Shahriah, thanks to parliament that has never revoked that despicable Resolution. With Islamabad only 60 kms away as the crow flies. The “domino theory” was very much a possibility in the adjoining districts. The outraged public reaction and the continuing atrocities perpetuated by Fazlullah was “casus belli,” giving space to the army deal with them effectively.

Once given the green signal and with the population firmly behind its campaign the army showed no reluctance or hesitation in going after the insurgent terrorist menace within our borders. The successful counterinsurgency overcame the psychological barrier, the feeling that the jihadis could not be beaten. The battlefield momentum was thereafter extended to South Waziristan. The Mahsuds provided the supposedly impenetrable outer ring around the non-Pakistani Al-Qaeda stronghold. But the myth of their invincibility, created with the help of uninformed media hype, soon evaporated. Many cadres of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) were killed. Some were taken captive but a substantial number melted away, many of them seeking (and receiving) refuge in North Waziristan from the Haqqani group.

Not that the army is infallible. The other day someone mentioned that the Pakistani army was working on a new doctrine. One was not surprised that an enquiry about the national security strategy on which the doctrine should be based produced blank looks. One may be forgiven for being rather skeptical. But, after all, who can forget the brilliance (and the after-effects) of the last two “doctrines”: (1) the defence of the East lies in the West, and (2) Afghanistan gives us strategic depth.

In similar vein, when Mian Nawaz Sharif talks about a 25-year charter drawn up by all stakeholders, one wonders what in the world is he talking about. For example, what really is the PML-N chief doing about the electricity and petroleum rates hiked beyond description? Forget the “vision thing.” The PML-N leader should start playing the role that Pakistanis want from the opposition, both within parliament and outside, providing the checks and balances that are the essence of democracy.

The Supreme Court judgment on the 18th Amendment was quite Solomonic, and hopefully parliament would respond in a mature fashion and correct the anomalies that have slipped into an otherwise commendable Raza Rabbani-led achievement. The PML-N’s ineptitude and the Supreme Court inaction have gifted Zardari time and space time and again. The one public official in Pakistan who does not have to declare his assets, the president has used this repeated let-off quite brilliantly, launching an effective attack against the Supreme Court’s credibility. While the Supreme Court has been forced occasionally to take the opposition’s role by default to ensure and/or enforce the rule of law for the hapless people of Pakistan, it has only itself to blame for vacillating in implementing its judgment on the NRO, whose beneficiaries continue to disfigure at will whatever governance there is in Pakistan.

The US is generous in getting material and monetary aid to us whenever we face either manmade and/or natural disasters. The US Chinooks supplementing Pakistan Army Aviation helicopters made the difference between life and death for millions stranded above the snowline in the high mountains during Earthquake 2005. The Chinooks were joined this time around during the devastating Floods 2010 by Sea Stallions in saving thousands upon thousands from the rising floodwaters, as well as delivering timely material aid. The $2 billion in military aid promised by the US recently is rather niggardly (at $500 million a year beginning 2012), when the amount is compared to the $18 billion largesse for the Afghan National Army (ANA). One must not look a gift horse in the mouth, but one feel more than a little aggrieved at what is being poured into a black hole in Afghanistan. The Pakistani army has lost more than 3,000 killed in the last 18 months, the ANA less than 300 dead (all the coalition forces put together have lost about 600 killed in action this year).

It is a fact of life that our young men in uniform are being killed in the line of duty at a ratio of 10:1 to the number of coalition casualties put together. Compared to the Afghan civilian casualties, our young and old – men, women and children – are dying at about the same rate at the hands of suicide bombers in the streets of Pakistan. While we must own the war against terrorism, it is ours to fight and win, the disparity in our effort compared to the treatment meted out to us rankles with us.

US ambassador Cameron Munter has hit the ground running. That is good, given the rather large shoes of his predecessor that he has to fill. Ambassador Anne Patterson was a class act and, even though one did disagree with her shoring up an inherently corrupt and ineffective leadership in Pakistan which represents everything that the average American can never stomach, she was outstanding in coalescing the core interests of the US with the concerns of Pakistan.

It is no secret that the US has always had (and continues to have) inordinate influence over our rulers, civil and military included, and while Pakistan may not always carry out their express instructions immediately, either because of a lack of resources and/or long-term core interests: e.g., action against the Haqqani group in North Waziristan, the US can (and must) use its considerable clout, Holbrooke notwithstanding, to ensure that our corrupt-to-the-core rulers adhere to the rule of law.

Let’s call a spade a spade and not insult everybody’s intelligence. We should be content being paid a pittance as mercenaries. What else will be made out to look when President Obama visits the real US “strategic partner” in the next few days? While the security of the US president must be the deciding factor, Obama should be persuaded to put himself in harm’s way for “a country that refuses to fail.” Even a few hours on our soil would be a tremendous vote of confidence.

The writer is a defence and political analyst. Email: isehgal@pathfinder 9.com

The Flood

By Michael Krepon

The Soviet Union was dying long before its collapse, but few took serious notice. Sovietologists in the United States were too threat-oriented to recognize grave weaknesses. And those who benefitted so much from the perks of state in the USSR were, for the most part, disinterested or incapable of reversing negative trend lines. To be sure, the Nomenclatura knew that new energy was badly needed at the top, which accounted for the elevation of Mikhail Gorbachev. But the rot was so far advanced by that time that Gorbachev’s attempts at reform unhinged the state

All of the nuclear weapons and fissile material accumulated by the Soviet security apparatus – stockpiles so large that no keeper of this treasure had an accurate count – helped not one bit to change this outcome. These surpluses were more than sufficient for deterrence, but worse than useless for what ailed the Soviet Union. Nuclear weapons could not reform a culture of corruption, political institutions or the agricultural sector.

Pakistan now faces an existential crisis that requires, for starters, clear thinking. A country in desperate need of water has been deluged by it. A political system that justifiably receives low marks for governance in the absence of crises could not possibly begin to cope with a natural disaster of this magnitude. President Asif Ali Zadari, now emblematic of what ails Pakistan, chose not to let the onset of flooding interfere with his travel plans to France, where he reportedly checked on his real estate portfolio, and Great Britain, where he planned to choreograph a public appearance by his son, recently graduated from Oxford, to help secure another family inheritance, one of Pakistan’s major political parties. This seminal event was shelved in lieu of a fund raiser for disaster relief.

For Pakistan, as well as India, the future now holds a million mutinies. Indian security forces are used to managing mutinies; Pakistan’s security forces are not. With an economy in decline, croplands and power grids destroyed, and a ruling class that does not believe in load sharing, micro-level revolts over land and electricity are likely to pile on to the macro list of Pakistan’s woes. Sectarian violence has not taken a holiday during Ramazan and the flood; militant groups are threatening U.S. aid workers, and the hollowing out of Islamabad’s writ over the country is accelerating. As if this weren’t enough, the pride of Pakistan – members of the national cricket team – have been credibly accused of fixing matches.

Disease gets a blank check when existential threats do not prompt a re-thinking of root causes. Pakistan’s military leaders now face very hard questions, the result of poor decisions made at earlier, critical junctures. Pakistan’s Kashmir policy, which was once viewed as a low-cost way to keep India off-balance and foster national unity has done far more damage to Pakistan than to India. Military takeovers have stymied political development without promoting sound governance. The Army’s expansion into economic domains has restricted economic growth and entrepreneurship. It is hard for Pakistan’s military to prepare to defend national territory when it is trying to run Pakistan’s government, agriculture and economy

The cost of defending Pakistan would be significantly less if Pakistan pursued reconciliation and economic trade with India, but movement along these lines in the past has been stymied by assaults on iconic Indian targets by young men trained and equipped in Pakistan. New Delhi’s political leaders should have the wisdom to understand that seizing and holding Pakistani territory would be like trying to swallow a porcupine. But continued mass casualty attacks by militant, Islamic groups based in Pakistan beg the question of New Delhi’s continued forbearance. India’s armed forces have the responsibility of developing punitive plans and are acquiring the capabilities to execute them if given these orders.

Pakistan’s military is therefore caught between a rock and a hard place. The conventional balance is tipping more and more in India’s favor, which means relying increasingly on nuclear weapons that, if used, would be Pakistan’s ultimate disaster. (In the midst of current travails, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament, Zamir Akram, reaffirmed his country’s veto on starting negotiations on a fissile material cutoff treaty.) Militant groups remain a double-edged sword. The Army is taking on one group, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan that has blown up mosques, markets and military installations, at significant cost. Other outfits, such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba and its parent organization, are inconvenienced only after major explosions in India. They are poison to Pakistan’s political and economic development, posing a threat to the state that Muhammad Ali Jinnah envisioned — but they are also likely to become the Pakistan Army’s allies in the event of an Indian attack triggered by their actions. The longer this dilemma continues, the harder it becomes for the Pakistan Army to address. Taking over governing functions would only add to the Army’s headaches, but it is once again evident that Pakistan’s political leaders have done well for themselves and poorly for their country.

So what, in current circumstances, does it mean to defend Pakistan?

Michael Krepon is the co-founder of the Stimson Center.

How to fight the Taliban… with Islam

Daniyal Noorani

The emphasis of the Islamic education is on orthopraxy and doctrine

Pakistan just can’t get a break. If it is not being drowned by floods, it is being set ablaze by suicide bombers. On Friday, at least 53 people were killed and 197 injured in a suicide bombing targeting a Shia Muslim rally in Quetta. A day before, three bombs exploded at a Shia procession in Lahore, with a mounting death toll of 35 people and wounding over 170.

The Taliban has taken responsibility for these attacks and boldly asserted that Shias are their targets. The argument that the Taliban use to justify their actions is simple, Shias are non-Muslims and apostates, hence they deserve to die. There is such confusion currently in Pakistan that this ideology is tacitly supported by the people and the government, as is evident from the apathetic response to the Ahmadi attacks. This belief that “Shias and Ahmadis are apostates, hence deserve to die” needs to be put in the ground once and for all.

Even though Pakistan is struggling to cope with the aftermath of the floods, there needs to be a continuous concerted effort to challenge the ideology of the Taliban, so that they have no legs to stand on. For a country that calls itself the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, there is a significant deficit in Islamic education and intellectualism beyond doctrine and blind faith. It is this lack of Islamic education that is resulting in a rigid and exclusive interpretation of Islam espoused by the Taliban, in which the killing of innocent people is justified. If Pakistan is ever going to successfully tackle the Taliban, they must provide better Islamic education to the people of Pakistan, so that the people have the tools needed to challenge the Taliban’s ideology.

Wrong practice

From day one in Pakistan, the emphasis of the Islamic education is on orthopraxy and doctrine, and little attention is given to trying to understand Islam and its history. It is more important for a Muslim in Pakistan to know how to offer his prayers than to know what his prayers mean. In addition to this, asking questions regarding Islam is discouraged or worse, could be considered blasphemous. You are supposed to take Islam as a given and blindly follow the practices of your forefathers. This blind following of faith and lack of Islamic intellectualism is creating an environment which empowers groups, like the Tehrik-e-Taliban. People in Pakistan do not have enough knowledge regarding Islam to challenge the claims of these self proclaimed experts.

There is a dearth of Islamic intellectualism in Pakistan. It is not taught in schools in Pakistan that after the death of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) there were substantial debates and conflict amongst the Muslim community regarding the “Muslim” identity. The history of Islam and the context in which the Quran was revealed is complete ignored. This allows for verses from the Holy Quran to be taken out of context and be used by the Taliban to espouse their violent ideology. Without an understanding the rich history of religious tolerance and debate within Islam, the people of Pakistan are ill equipped to see how flawed the ideology of the Taliban is. This is an ideology in which they believe that everyone must share their belief or be subjugated by them.

While I am sure the Taliban could also find verses from the Holy Quran to espouse their ideology, the most important thing that could come out of improved Islamic education in Pakistan is that a dialogue would occur and a counter opinion would be formulated. Through this dialogue an ideology which is more representative of the peace loving people of Pakistan will emerge.

In the current Islamic education system the exclusive nature of Islam is emphasized, but with an improved Islamic education system the inclusive and tolerant nature of Islam will come through. An improved Islamic education system in Pakistan is the only sustainable way that Pakistan can tackle the Taliban. It will remove their ability to manipulate Islam to further their cause and negate their twisted justification for the killings of innocents.

Drone strikes kill 24 in North, South Waziristan

By Irfan Burki, Malik Mumtaz & Mushtaq Yusufzai

WANA/MIRAMSHAH/PESHAWAR: Twenty-four people, majority of them local tribal militants, were killed and some others were injured in three different missile attacks by the US spy planes in South Waziristan and North Waziristan on Sunday.

The first attack took place in Shaktoi area of South Waziristan where the drone fired two missiles and hit a double-cabin pickup carrying militants. Taliban sources said 14 militants were killed and two others were injured in the attack.

They belonged to the Hakimullah Mehsud-led Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). According to Taliban sources, these militants along with several other Mehsud insurgents had returned recently to their native South Waziristan and were planning to fight the Pakistani security forces there.

Many Mehsud Taliban fled their strongholds in South Waziristan and mostly shifted to the adjoining North Waziristan and Orakzai tribal regions when the government launched a military operation against Hakimullah Mehsud and his militants on October 17, 2009.

The sources among the militants said 14 insurgents died on the spot and two others sustained serious injuries. The two injured were shifted to a hospital in Mir Ali, the second biggest town of neighbouring North Waziristan. They were reported to have suffered multiple injuries.

It was the first attack by US spy planes in the Mehsud-inhabited areas of South Waziristan, particularly in Shaktoi after the January 15 missile strikes on a house after the US and Pakistani officials started making claims that Hakimullah Mehsud had been killed.

The second drone attack on Sunday occurred in Landikhel village of Srarogha Tehsil in South Waziristan. Tribal sources said four people, suspected to be militants belonging to the TTP, were killed and five others sustained injuries.

They said the drone fired two missiles on a house where some militants were having dinner. Moreover, six people were killed and four others injured in the third drone attack in the adjoining North Waziristan tribal region.

Official and tribal sources said the drone fired two missiles and struck a house in Tolkhel village, seven kilometres north of Miramshah, the headquarters of North Waziristan. Villagers in Tolkhel said four spy planes were seen flying over the village for quite sometime on Sunday.

They said rescue work was started after two hours as the spy planes were still flying over the area. There was no word on the identity of those slain in the drone strikes.

Hillary did not warn Pak of ‘severe consequences’: U.S.

PTI

The Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not warn Islamabad of “severe consequences” if a terrorist attack inside the US were to be have its foot print in Pakistan, two top officials of the State Department have said.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton during an address at U.N. headquarters

“I don’t think she said that,” Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs P.J. Crowley told reporters when asked about such a statement given by Ms. Clinton in an interview to the CBS news on Sunday.

“I think she (Clinton) was responding to a hypothetical question that the United States, would take seriously any link to a foreign country where there are successful terrorist attacks. She’s not singling out any one country in particular,” Mr. Crowley asserted.

Pakistan to enter N. Waziristan on its own terms

Pakistani forces, under U.S. pressure to enter the militant bastion of North Waziristan, will do so but in their own time and when adequate resources are available, a Pakistani general said on Monday.

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder comments during an appearance on ”Meet the Press” in Washington, May 9, 2010.

Lieutenant General Sardar Mahmood Ali Khan, Deputy Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added that such a big task in the mountainous northwest was not “firefighting” and had to be done in sequence with other battles.

Pakistan has come under fresh U.S. pressure to send troops into north Waziristan following a failed bombing in New York claimed by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Taliban Movement of Pakistan, which has fighters in northwestern areas including North Waziristan.

In Bajaur, Pakistan Army faults U.S. strategy

Sandeep Dikshit

KHAAR (BAJAUR): After a bloody campaign that lasted six months, the Pakistan Army has restored control over this tribal agency that nearly fell last year to a rampaging Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). As the Army helicopter swept down towards the fort, it was clear that the Army and the paramilitary Bajaur Scouts were putting their best foot forward to showcase an area that had gone out of state control to militias aligned with Behtullah Mehsud’s TTP.

Rosy-cheeked children, girls and boys, stream out of schools, the older ones taking home provisions of sugar and flour, the younger ones stopping to wave at the hurrying convoy. People are clustered around a pack of shops crammed with medicines near one of the biggest hospitals in the region. And the few general-purpose shops open have multi-coloured sweets.

Three of the area’s top TTP leaders are on the run. A meticulously dug cave near the village of Damadola was assaulted and captured, and operations are on in the higher mountain reaches that enclose the wide valley of Khaar town and its adjoining villages.

Mystery behind Taliban Shura

Why This Sudden Interest In Shura?

By Brig Asif Haroon Raja

From September last year onwards Taliban Shura or more popularly termed as Quetta Shura (QS) suddenly cropped up in US media and drummed up. New York Times wrote that that issue of Taliban leadership Shura in Quetta had emerged at top of Obama administration’s agenda in its meetings with Pakistani officials. It took the US eight years to accept that Afghanistan and not Pakistan is the epic center of terrorism. Gen McChrystal admitted that insurgency in Afghanistan was predominantly Afghan. Elimination of QS or as a minimum its division became an important goal of USA, India and Afghanistan. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia were cajoled to help the trio in realizing their objective of winning over the moderate Taliban and members of QS. Five Taliban leaders based in Afghanistan who were part of Mullah Omar Council from 1996 to 2001 have been cultivated and so is Mullah Zaeef, ex Ambassador to Islamabad.

Mullah Zaeef, Former Taliban Ambassador to Islamabad

Karzai’s emissaries have been secretly meeting members of QS and other influential Taliban leaders and had achieved some successes. Mullah Brothers Dadullah and Mansoor Dadullah as well as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar belong to Kandahar and are related to Karzai. It was through them that Karzai was trying to contact Mullah Omar and other hard line Taliban leaders. He had established contacts with Gulbadin Hikmatyar who had given his consent to sit on the negotiating table. Besides Baradar, few other important members of QS were also cultivated. It was essentially because of his contacts within the ranks of Taliban that Karzai was tolerated by USA for so long despite his serious limitations.

No road map to break ongoing cycle of violence

By Asif Haroon Raja

When the US decided to invade Afghanistan in October 2001, both Afghanistan and Pakistan were on very friendly terms. For the first time in Pakistan’s history its western border had become safe.

Within Pakistan, FATA and Balochistan were peaceful and people of the two regions were as patriotic as of any other region. Suicide attacks or car bomb blasts were unheard of. Tribesmen of FATA stood fully committed to defend western border at their own. It was owing to their sense of patriotism that Pak government never felt the need to send regular troops there. Small scale localized skirmishes were dealt by the Political Agent who had at his command Khasadars and Frontier Constabulary.

On rare occasions assistance of Frontier Corps was sought. Despite common ethnic and religious affinities between the people living both sides of the Durand Line, the people of FATA never allowed foreign influence to penetrate within their domain. Afghanistan government’s machinations never made any impact on them despite extreme poverty and underdevelopment in FATA. Likewise NAP, latter ANP’s desire for Pakhtunistan failed to cut ice in FATA.

4 Soldiers martyred, 39 militants killed in Orakzai

Seven killed in NWA drone attack

HANGU/KALAYA: Four soldiers and 39 militants were killed while nine soldiers sustained injuries in clashes between security forces and militants in lower parts of Orakzai Agency on Sunday night, tribal and official sources said.

The sources said the militants attacked security forces checkpost in Shireen Darra in the lower parts of Orakzai Agency, killing four soldiers. The slain soldiers were identified as Hawaldar Zamin Khan, Naik Sajid, Lance Naik Rustam and Lance Naik Muhammad Saeed, while the injured included Hawaldar Ali Akbar, Lance Naik Hameed Hussain, Lance Naik Jehanzeb, Lance Naik Ehtesham, Lance Naik Kifayatullah, Naik Sher Muhammad, Sepoy Saeed Rehman, Sepoy Hamadullah and Sepoy Muhammad Gul.

Security forces hit back at the militants with artillery fire and killed the brother of Naib Amir of the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Ziaur Rehman alias Zewar Mulla and another commander Saifur alias Saifullah of Orakzai Agency.

Commander among four militants killed in Hangu

HANGU: Four persons including a pro-government militant were shot dead and another sustained injuries in an attack by Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters in Shahukhel area here Wednesday, tribal sources said.

The sources said the militants attacked the house of an important former militant commander Hafiz Sakhi Rahman who had abandoned them eight months ago and started backing the government.

Four persons including Sakhi Rahman were killed on the spot while one of his men sustained injuries, the sources added. The identity of the other three slain persons could not be established.

Public Intelligence Network (PIN) is what we need!

By Ahsan Waheed

Pakistan, Lahore: Last Friday, 12th March 2010 was an extremely tragic day for the people of Lahore. Over 80 people lost their lives in twin suicide blasts in the heart of military cantonment. Though the attack was on the Garrison Security Force (GSF, Army) patrol convoy, but the civilian death toll far exceeded the military casualties. Many children coming back from schools, some young boys who used to sell balloons on the roadside, women buying groceries and men working in shops and workshops were killed.

As usual, TTP (Tahrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) have claimed responsibility for these blasts. Later same day a series of small explosions were witnessed in a residential colony of Lahore. The explosions were carefully executed to ensure that the law enforcement agencies remained on the wild goose chase. Pakistani news media covered the entire episode of these multiple low intensity blasts live on television. The whole nation (and rest of the world) saw how Pakistani security agencies ran in circles as one explosion led to another. Media wasted no time in stating that the terrorists were making a joke out of Pakistan’s intelligence and security agencies.

In the next forty eight hours or so, our intelligence agencies uncovered something that was amazing and mind boggling and at the same time spine chilling. 1500 kg of bomb making explosives + suicide jackets + hand grenades + light machine guns were recovered from Lahore’s residential area market and then next day another 3000 kg of bomb making explosives + more suicide jackets + more hand grenades + more weapons were recovered again from Lahore. That makes it 4500 kg of explosives from a single city plus all the other deadly terrorist weapons. How can such a huge cache of explosives and weapons enter a city full of check posts and high alert security agencies personnel? It must also be noted that only few days before 12^th March attacks in Lahore, FIA (Federal Investigation Agency) office was also completely destroyed and scores of its staff members were killed in a suicide attack. The cache of arms and explosives which was recovered was on tipoff from a local resident. This means that had not the civilian noticed something fishy going on in one of the shops in his area, intelligence agencies might not have been able to detect these deadly explosives, which could have resulted in loss of hundreds of more innocent lives.

So how do intelligence agencies work? Usually they assess the situation, follow a pattern and trends and come up with possible scenario. Their moles provide inside information from various sources and undercover agents infiltrate the enemy locations. Even USA was unable to predict and avoid the 9/11 WTC tragedy. But immediately after the 9/11 attack, all US secret service agencies came up with all sorts of clear proofs, evidences and information that such an attack was bound to happen. All this information that had been circulating in the intelligence and national security agencies circle was useless because they had failed to avert this huge tragedy. Indian intelligence agencies also claimed after the Mumbai attack that they had knowledge of the attack long before the Mumbai tragedy actually happened. Yet all the evidence and warnings were presented only when it was too late. My personal belief is that intelligence agencies use this “after attack evidence” as a face saving tactic. Just to let the tax payers know that the intelligence agencies were not just sitting on their soft asses while the terrorists were plotting to blow up your neighborhood!

Of course I am not saying that intelligence agencies are useless, they do make the job of terrorists more difficult. Their harsh interrogation mechanism can do bear fruit and many new leads are obtained which help avert future attacks. Their moles do provide information which helps in beefing up security on time. In fact without intelligence agencies support it would be almost impossible to counter terrorism. When a suicide bomber decides to blow up a target, no on location security can prevent him from blowing himself up. But with intelligence information pre-emptive measures can be taken to stop the suicide bomber by catching him and ceasing the explosives that may have been used. There are many examples of how intelligence agencies have been able to identify, locate and capture terrorists before they could strike. Such arrests lead to many new leads and further arrests.

Coming back to Lahore, the 4500 kg explosives plus all the other stuff in a way can be considered huge victory for the intelligence agencies if we include and make public support a part of national intelligence network. This was an excellent example of how ordinary citizens can become a vital part of anti-terrorism force. Government should not only encourage public support but the intelligence agencies must conduct training programs and workshops for the civilians to better monitor and secure their neighborhoods. If such programs are conducted on regular basis, then the intelligence agencies will automatically become manifolds more powerful and acts of terrorism can be brought down significantly. Such confiscation of explosives will be a huge blow to the already badly beaten Taliban. Their losses in the Waziristan area are already increasing everyday as the Pakistan Army is battling them out, out of their holes killing them as mercilessly as these terrorists kill the innocent civilians. These terrorist attacks are actually their cowardly way of trying to force the Government of Pakistan to halt military operations against the “Taliban”. But this time Talibans know that their end is not only inevitable but extremely close.

Increase in terrorist activity in Lahore is also an indicator of Taliban activity in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Especially the southern Punjab, which has been neglected by the past governments. The poverty and illiteracy level is very high in these areas. Most of the people in the southern Punjab are dominated by feudal lords. This makes these people the ideal future recruits for terrorist networks like Taliban, LeT and Al Qaida (Al Qaeda). By improving the life of people in such areas government can avoid future catastrophe. Feudal lords must be forced to help the people in their villages and towns, schools with modern education must be introduced, religious organizations operating in these areas must be monitored and kept under check. In addition movement of people from other areas should also be observed strictly. This may not suit the life style of the feudal lords as they might lose their grip and control over the people but for national interest we have to educate our people and provide them with opportunities to improve their quality of life.

In order to make anti-terrorist forces more affective field staff of intelligence agencies has to be increased and its interaction with the common people must be intense. Pakistan has witnessed way too many terrorist attacks in the last few years. While such cowardly acts bring great sorrow, it also makes the nation stronger and more resilient. Today, almost all Pakistanis have been affected by this wave of terrorism in one way or another and all Pakistanis are determined to fight it till all terrorist elements are eliminated. In the end it’s not the Pakistan Army or intelligence agencies that are going to eradicate the curse of terrorism but it will have to be common people of Pakistan. It will have to be a unified national effort. One lapse in security should not be consider a defeat for the security and intelligence agencies but should be considered a lesson for the future. It will have to be you, me and all of us who are the public of Pakistan who have to join hands and form a Public Intelligence Network (PIN) which will work with the government intelligence agencies to counter terrorism. Being a Pakistani you automatically become a part of PIN and if you will not report any information that you may have about a suspicious / terrorist activity, then you are as bad as the terrorists.

Return of the Taliban

SIMON SEATON

Taliban fighters

It seems that whenever we start thinking that the Taliban are on the losing end and that the victory is on the horizon, we get a kick in our faces.

Recent bombings in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan are sending strong signals across the globe that Taliban terror is far from over. Infact in the last few weeks we have seen a sharp increase in suicide attacks especially in Iraq and Pakistan. IN Afghanistan its no better. Not only is Kabul constantly under threat and attack, but the US and NATO troops are losing their lives on daily basis.

Lahore, Pakistan is the latest big city to be revisted by the terror plot. Taliban (TTP) have claimed the responsibility. Target was a Special Investigative Agency office which housed over 70 people. The explosive used in the attack was over 600kg. The SIA building was completely destroyed and 13 people lost their lives while 62 sustained injuries.

Read Complete Article here : http://simseat.newsvine.com/_news/2010/03/09/3995512-return-of-the-taliban