Not Such a Super Power

By Ahsan Waheed
Tacstrat

The discovery of a very large consignment of adult pampers in a consignment meant for US troops in Afghanistan has led to laughter all around especially among their hosts—the Afghans. Apparently the pampers are used by troops so that they do not have to get out of their bunkers at night and so that they are not caught in vulnerable positions by enemies lurking all around them.

Earlier a video had surfaced showing US Marines urinating on the corpses of Taliban fighters. Such desecration is particularly repugnant to Islam and such treatment of the enemy dead is seen as cowardly and immoral. The US has indicated that the Marines involved in such shameful behavior have been identified. Even if they are punished the damage is done because it shows a mind set and reflects poorly on discipline and training of US personnel. There was also the much publicized case of Western troops cutting off body parts of dead Taliban to take home as trophies. This had sent a surge of hatred and violence not just in Taliban ranks but all Afghans—even those forced to accept them as allies.

Much earlier in Iraq there was the scandal of ill treatment of Iraqi prisoners—even sexual abuse by US male and female soldiers. Even dogs were used and the sole purpose was humiliation of the enemy when he could not retaliate. Iraqis will not forget. Similar abuses and torture have been reported in detention centers in Afghanistan. President Karzai has been forced to publicly condemn the infamous night raids on Afghan households where not even women and children are spared. Karzai has also acted against the US contractors who are drawn from the ranks of jobless veterans and are truly at the bottom of the food chain in their homeland. These agents have no ethics or morals and are trigger happy killers as the Raymond Davis affair indicated to the whole world. Guantanamo is too well known to comment upon and now there is the new US law under which people can be detained indefinitely on suspicion of terrorism.

Some concerned quarters are now raising concerns over the large numbers of Iraqis and Afghans killed in the US war on terror. US statistics only tally American deaths—there are no statistics on others killed and maimed. The effect on US servicemen is however extreme as is evident from the large numbers suffering from post trauma stress disorder-a euphemism for the reaction from brutalities seen and carried out. As more troops head home the violence in the ‘homeland’ is sure to increase and will be directed at the most vulnerable segment of society. In the countries where the US has operated a backlash of hatred is already evident making new US allies like India wary and careful how far they go in an embrace that always betrays. An article in the NY Times Jan 15 details the post US reaction in Iraq against US contractors.

Role of Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan and Afghan Taliban

Brig. Asif Haroon Raja (Retd)

After 9/11, when Gen Musharraf was telephonically coerced by Washington, he quickly gave in to American seven demands. He agreed to side with untrustworthy USA which had a track record of leaving Pakistan high and dry in testing times, and to ditch Taliban regime which was anti-India and pro-Pakistan and had assured Pakistan of safe western border. He took a u turn at a critical time when both were badly in need of Pakistan support.

Musharraf took hasty decisions to change Afghan policy and to fight US war on terror in accordance with the wishes of Washington without taking into account its long term implications. His unwise decision to push the Army into South Waziristan antagonized the tribesmen compelling the defenders of our western border to turn their guns towards Pak Army, seen by them as a mercenary army of USA. It paved the way for our strategic assets in FATA becoming assets for our adversaries. Pakistan continues to suffer the blowback to this day.

Logically and morally, the US should have been highly obliged and indebted to Pakistan’s crucial support and should have gone out of the way to reward Pakistan handsomely for taking such a difficult decision which had grave ramifications for its security. Pakistan suffered grievous losses on social, political, economic and military planes while fighting futile war on terror. In terms of casualties, its losses far outnumber all other countries involved in war on terror. Pakistan having staked its security for protecting US interests was distrusted, maligned, coerced and destabilized. It was accused of double game and not doing enough.

India which did not shed a drop of blood was not only materially rewarded by awarding nuclear and defence deals but also made a strategic partner and given all out help to expand its influence in Afghanistan to emerge as a key player in Afghan affairs. Worst of all, CIA and FBI actively collaborated with RAW to cultivate Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) in FATA, Tehrik-e-Nifaz-Shariat-Muhammadi (TNSM) in Swat and dissident elements within Bugti, Marri and Mengal tribes in Balochistan to create lawlessness. Activities of rebellious forces were supplemented by foreign agents infiltrated from Afghanistan. The US strove to deprive Pakistan of its nukes and its media indulged in defamation campaign.

India is aiding TTP in FATA and BLA-BRA-BLUF in Balochistan. These outfits are being used for multiple purposes. Apart from the main objective of destabilizing Pakistan, these outfits are used for spoiling Pakistan’s relations with its neighbors. Kidnapping and killing of several Chinese officials working on development projects in Balochistan and in FATA were undertaken at the behest of India. Establishment of ETIM, a separatist organization vying for independence of Xingjiang province of China was reportedly based in FATA under the protection of TTP. Likewise, attacks on Imambargahs and targeting of Shia clerics and notables as well as acts of terror in Zahidan province of Iran using Jindollah group from Balochistan were RAW-CIA-MI-6 sponsored to fan Shia-Sunni conflict and to mar Pak-Iran relations. Jindollah’s leader Abdol Malik Regi who has recently been arrested was operating from Afghanistan and Dubai.

The Afghan Taliban should have carried a deep grudge since Pakistan not only betrayed them but also provided air bases, intelligence and logistic support to make US invasion successful. Pakistan is still continuing to make available its soil for transportation of war supplies to ISAF in Afghanistan. Several Taliban leaders including Abdul Salam Zaeef were handed over to USA to earn US goodwill and dollars. Conversely, Afghan Taliban should have joined hands with Pakistani Taliban, both driven by common ideological motivations, to avenge Pakistan’s betrayal. On the contrary they never fired a shot at Pakistan’s security forces. They refused to come to the rescue of beleaguered Hakimullah led militants in October-November 2009, even when the NATO-Afghan forces deliberately left the border facing SW open.

Finding that the US in connivance with India and Israel was playing dirty by indulging in covert operations in FATA, Swat and Balochistan, Pakistan wisely decided not to hound whatever few elements of Afghan Taliban and Haqqani group were present in Waziristan and to concentrate on quislings. In the wake of anti-Pakistan and pro-India Northern Alliance ruling the roost in Kabul and India striving to carve out a principle role for itself in Afghanistan after the departure of USA from the region, Pakistan is justified in keeping discreet contacts with friendly Pashtun Afghan factions.

It is ironic that Pakistan deceived Taliban and supported Karzai regime laden with Northern Alliance elements to earn the goodwill of USA but lost the goodwill of all three. It was greatness of Taliban that they ignored the great betrayal due to which they suffered a great deal and did not take it to their heart. It was black ingratitude of both Karzai led regime and US to deceive Pakistan and befriend India. Had the duo in league with India not played a double game to encircle and harm Pakistan, the latter would not have opened a window for the Taliban.

The coalition forces are fighting a protracted war in Afghanistan for the last eight years with least number of fatalities but they have got tired and weary and their morale has sunk low. The Afghan fighters on the other hand are fighting for the last three decades without any respite and have suffered colossal human and material losses. Still their resolve to continue fighting has not diminished. They show no sign of fatigue or loss of heart nor do they get over awed by the overwhelming numerical, technical, technological and firepower superiority of occupation forces. It is USA that has come down from the high pedestal and is eager to negotiate a deal with Taliban.

While the US has been constantly pressing Pakistan to do more, in actuality it is former that needs to do more. Pakistan Army with bare minimum resources, pitched against foreign trained and well equipped militants and having suffered heavy casualties has performed exceptionally well; high tide of militancy has been decisively enfeebled; morale of all ranks is high and each member is determined to root out the scourge of terrorism. Conversely, US led coalition forces enjoy vast superiority over their rag tag foes in men, material and intelligence resources. Despite being laced with all the advantages and with very low casualty rate, their performance has been dismal.

Near 80% of Afghan territory has been lost to the Taliban despite US leadership self professed claim that entire leadership of Al-Qaeda and Taliban is in Pakistan. US leaders claim that 80% of Taliban are moderate and are prepared to ditch 20% hardcore Taliban led by Mullah Omar. They also say that not more than 100 Al-Qaeda operatives are in Afghanistan. If all these claims are true, why the heavy troop surge and why so much fuss over biggest offensive in Helmand province when the expected opposition is so insignificant? Isn’t it ideal situation for beefed up coalition forces to effectively seal the border through mining, fencing and establishing posts along the border to prevent Pakistan based leaders from influencing the battles in Afghanistan and then deal with the leaderless Taliban and win the war hands down? The woven story to cover up failures needs lot of fine tuning.

Of late there is a noticeable change in the overall demeanor of USA towards Pakistan. It has belatedly dawned upon the US military that victory is not possible and safe withdrawal is the only realistic course of action left. They have realized that Pakistan in connivance with Afghan Taliban and not India or Northern Alliance would be able to arrange an honorable exit. But for this changed security situation, the US would not have changed its offensive posture towards Pakistan.

Subtle shift in US policy is not because of change of heart but because of self serving expediency. Pakistan should therefore remain wary of American moves rather than feeling euphoric that it has regained trust and confidence of USA. Under no circumstances should Pakistan hand over recently nabbed Afghan Taliban leaders like Mullah Ghani Baradar, Maulvi Kabir, Mulla Abdul Salam and Mulla Mir Muhammad either to USA or to Afghanistan since it will bring back the memories of black deeds of Musharraf. Ajmal Kasab being Pakistani national is in Indian captivity since November 2008 and has not been handed over to Pakistan. Why should Pakistan be in a hurry to hand over Afghan captives to Afghanistan ruled by US installed puppet regime whose days are numbered? After the withdrawal of foreign forces, if God forbid another bout of internecine war takes place in Afghanistan, it will not be among the Pashtuns but possibly between Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns in which the former would emerge victorious. It is therefore a strategic compulsion of Pakistan to keep the Afghan Pashtuns friendly. They must not be betrayed again.

Unlike Afghan Taliban, the TTP does not have a strong cause. While the former are fighting against occupation forces and US installed Afghan regime and US trained so-called Afghan National Army which is national in name only (over 70% are non-Pashtun) to free their country, the TTP are up against Pakistan security forces. They succeeded as long as the people believed that they were better Muslims who wanted to replace un-Islamic parliamentary and judicial systems with Sharia and were genuinely keen to provide cheap and instant justice to the poor. Their barbaric acts of suicide attacks, kidnappings for ransom, slaughtering of captives, targeting mosques, destroying schools and denying women rights created serious doubts in the minds of the people since these practices went against the teachings of Islam. They still remained in two minds since they had got utterly disgusted with the role of parasitic rulers and rich class totally callous and insensitive towards the poor. Absence of justice and extreme poverty had driven them to a state of hopelessness and despair. They prayed for a healthy change and thought that the Taliban might redress their grievances and make their lives better.

The people felt ebullient when a treaty was inked in Swat in February 2009 for the establishment of Islamic courts in Swat and Malakand Division in return for Fazlullah militants giving up militancy. Amidst rejoicing by the people of Swat, the detractors of Pakistan unhappy with the changed security situation nudged Maulana Sufi to declare that he didn’t believe in Pakistan’s constitution, democracy and legal system. As if this bomb shell was not enough, Swat militants joined by Uzbek and Tajik fighters gave a new twist to the situation when they entered Lower Dir and Buner and started harassing the public. Western media upped the ante by raising alarm bells that the militants were too close to Islamabad and might takeover the capital city as well as nukes. These unprovoked offensive acts brought a sudden change in the perceptions of the people and for the first time they saw the other side of face of TTP and TNSM. Sufi-Fazlullah threw away the battle they had won through imprudent acts. From that time onwards, public support veered towards the Army.

Once the people saw with their own eyes the connection of RAW, CIA and Mossad with Swat militants and also learnt that several Imams of mosques as well as sizeable numbers of Taliban fighters were Hindus posing as Muslims, their revulsion for fake Taliban espousing the cause of Islam got intense. They vacated their houses to let the troops deal with foreign paid militants without any let and hindrance and to restore the pristine tranquility of Swat once again. Nearly 2.5 million people got displaced but the people of NWFP bore the brunt of 80% IDPs by sharing their homes and resources smilingly. They bore the economic burden at a time when prices of daily commodities had sky rocketed, there were no jobs and load shedding was at its peak.

Encouraged by the response of the people, the Army went about performing its tasks in its usual professional manner and succeeded in toppling well entrenched strongholds of the militants in Swat within -weeks as against the estimated timeframe of -weeks. Roaring success of operation Rah-e-Rast helped the Army to seize initiative and brought a happy change in the overall security environment. Going by the military principle of maintenance of momentum, the Army kept the militants on the run giving them no respite to rest and refit. Riding on the crest of success, the Army leadership took the critical decision of locking horns with the main base of TTP in South Waziristan (SW) where it was the strongest.

With active foreign support spread over several years, late Baitullah had filled up hundreds of unapproachable caves and tunnels with all sorts of sophisticated arms, explosives and ammunition. Some tunnels were converted into field hospitals while house compounds were utilized for training. Factories producing IEDs, suicide jackets and other gadgets were in operation. Militants were equipped with high-tech telephone and wireless sets and jamming devices. Hiace and toyata hilux vehicles were in plenty to move from one place to another. The two flanks of Mehsud belt were well protected by Ahmedzai Wazirs under Maulvi Nazir within SW and Othmanzai Wazirs under Gul Bahadur along with Haqqani network in North Waziristan. Baitullah’s successor Hakimullah Mehsud had 10,000 fighters and 2000 foreigners. Terrain and weather together with home ground also suited the militants. Despite enjoying all these advantages, Pak Army took just -weeks as against stipulated time of -weeks to uproot TTP defences and is holding the captured ground with absolute firmness.

The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance defence analyst who contributes regularly for local and foreign newspapers.

Superficial efforts of USA to defuse Indo-Pakistan antagonism

By Asif Haroon Raja

Indo-Pakistan relations have remained strained since the inception of two states in August 1947. Some of the reasons of undying animosity are the Hindu-British nexus during the British rule in India which persecuted the Indian Muslims and played a perverse role while dividing India. Pakistan was loaded with innumerable complex problems so as to extinguish its life during infancy.

Kashmir was annexed forcibly by Indian forces in 1948 and the dispute has not been resolved to this date. Throughout 62 years of its history, Pakistan has remained the victim of Indian machinations. Even after truncating it in 1971, it continued with its expansionist and hegemonic policies to subdue Pakistan and to extract peace on unequal terms. Indian political leaders have been winning elections by castigating Pakistan and beating war drums. Pakistan being small in size and militarily weak has all along endeavored to normalize relations with India but its efforts were either rudely spurned or subjected to deceit.

Fixated by its ardent desire to be accepted as a regional power, it has been incessantly building up its military muscles and has employed covert means to keep Pakistan politically destabilized and economically weak. Pakistan’s refusal to accept its hegemony has kept Indian leaders on a war path. It considers Pakistan to be the sole stumbling block in its path to attain regional ascendancy and big power status. Nuclearisation of Pakistan has frustrated its evil designs since it can no more bully or blackmail Pakistan by threatening to wage a war. It has therefore once again resorted to covert operations coupled with propaganda warfare at a massive scale to achieve its objectives. This time it has aligned itself with USA, Britain, Israel and Afghanistan and is using Afghan soil to launch clandestine operations in Balochistan, FATA and NWFP including Swat. Since India has already made deep inroads in Sindh, it is therefore concentrating on other regions.

In pursuant of their common objectives, foreign powers have been extending a helping hand to India for the last eight years despite the fact that Pakistan has been nominated as front line state to fight US war on terror and has rendered maximum sacrifices. During this testing period in which Pakistan suffered immensely at the hands of so-called friends, the two antagonists came close to war twice.

Having inflamed greater part of Pakistan through sabotage and subversion, India has the brashness to cry out that it is victim of Pakistan sponsored terrorism. Hypocrisy of India can be judged from its habit of blaming Pakistan for the crimes it commits against Pakistan. Any act of terror, real or fabricated, taking place in India is promptly pasted on Pakistan without even carrying out preliminary investigations. It bellows and bawls loudly to gain sympathies of the world and to portray Pakistan as the culprit. It had done so when it cooked up a terrorist attack on Indian Parliament in December 2001 and termed it as another 9/11. Media hype was created and every Indian bayed for blood of Pakistan. Biggest ever troop mobilization was carried out and its forces stood in eye ball to eye ball contact for ten months. Its subsequent in house inquiry could not find any clue to substantiate its allegations blurted out at the spur of the moment but by then the damage had been done.

India behaved in similar audacious and babyish fashion when Mumbai incident occurred. Indian leaders removed the mask of friendship, called off composite dialogue in a huff and reverted to their obdurate and cantankerous posture. They are duplicitous, unprincipled and shameless. While falsely blaming Pakistan of terrorism without evidence, they haven’t felt even pinch of embarrassment after Pakistan unearthed heavy involvement of RAW in all its troubled regions. Likewise, India and its partners remain mum on wide scale terrorism going on within India.

Indo-Pakistan antagonism did not cause any anxiety to USA as long as US-Nato forces were keeping Afghan security situation within manageable limits and India was conducting subversion against Pakistan right under its nose. Once security conditions in Afghanistan deteriorated and Afghan Taliban gained an upper edge over occupation forces from 2008 onwards, US leaders started preaching peace between India and Pakistan. They are vainly trying to convince Pakistan that extremist forces and not India pose an existential threat. Pakistan is being continually pressed to shift bulk of its forces from eastern border towards western border to defeat terrorists and to forget about Indian threat. While giving verbal assurances, the US has not taken any practical steps to allay fears of Pakistanis nor has India brought any change in its attitude. US efforts are at best superficial and lack sincerity of purpose.

India at the cost of 70% poverty stricken people is spending large chunk of its budget on its military to enlarge and modernize its forces. Indian Army has 34 combat divisions, three armored divisions, seven independent armored brigades, five RAPID divisions, two airborne brigades, two artillery divisions, independent artillery brigades, over 200 nuclear bombs and wide variety of ballistic missiles. Besides, India has formidable air force and navy. Out of thirteen Corps, seven Indian Corps are poised against Pakistan. India refuses to shift its bias of military force away from its western border on the silly plea that it is vulnerable to terrorist threat from Pakistan. It has now deceptively expressed its readiness to shift some forces from occupied Kashmir under fond hope that it would impel Pakistan Army to shift its centre of attention towards FATA. Gen Deepak Kapoor is eagerly awaiting such a move so that his forces could exploit the imbalance at an opportune time.

India has become largest nest of terrorism where Hindu terrorists and insurgents are on a rampage. In all terrorist acts taking place from 2006 to 2008, in which 40-60% victims were Indian Muslims, Pakistan was blamed but it transpired later that Hindu terrorist groups duly patronized by RAW and Indian Army were responsible. Apart from Hindu terror, dozens of separatist and insurgent movements are raging in various parts of India and shaking the very foundations of Indian Union. All its nuclear and missile sites are located within the Red Corridor in eastern India where uncontrollable Maoist movement is reigning supreme. Indian Army is deeply involved in criminal activities including racism, arms and nuclear fissile material smuggling. These ground realities do not vex US and western leaders. Instead of declaring India as hub centre of terrorism and most dangerous country in the world, biased western leaders have given these titles to Pakistan and are hounding it under the mantra of do more. Pakistan has been taken for granted and made into a sacrificial lamb to cover up Indian subversive activities and to hide failures of US military in Afghanistan.

Successes achieved by Pakistan Army in Waziristan as opposed to dismal performance of US-Nato forces in Afghanistan have flummoxed our detractors. To cloud the spectacular achievements, US leaders have come out with absurd allegations that Osama led Al-Qaeda is based in FATA since 2002 and Mullah Omar led Afghan Shura is in Quetta. To overcome discomfiture of Helmand operation fiasco, frustrated Gordon Brown stated that Pakistan should highlight its military successes modestly. He forgets the exultations and megalomaniac behavior of Bush and Blair after occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq. We have also not forgotten their exclamation ‘we’ve got em’ after Saddam was nabbed. Reality is that Pak Army is playing its part commendably without blowing trumpets. It is now the actors on other side of Durand Line who have to do a lot more. If Obama sincerely wants to soothe Indo-Pakistan antagonism and convert Pak-American relations into meaningful friendship, he and his cronies should come out of superficial mode, stop meddling into Pakistan affairs and earnestly work toward finding an amicable solution to Kashmir dispute.

- Asian Tribune -

Kayani spells out terms for regional stability

By Zahid Hussain

RAWALPINDI: Chief of the Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani said on Monday the success of military operations in the tribal regions have caused substantial decline in cross-border attacks on Nato forces in Afghanistan and warned that it was essential to address Pakistan’s long-term strategic concerns for stability in the region.

During an address to the foreign media, General Ashfaq Kayani said that peace and stability in Afghanistan were crucial to Pakistan’s long-term interests. -APP File Photo

In a rare press briefing, General Kayani said it would be a cause of worry for Pakistan if Afghanistan’s projected army developed the potential to take on Pakistan.

“We want a strategic depth in Afghanistan but do not want to control it,” the general said while talking to a group of journalists at the Army General Headquarters.

“A peaceful and friendly Afghanistan can provide Pakistan a strategic depth.” He asked the US and Nato to come out with a clear strategy on Afghanistan.

General Kayani who last week participated in Nato commanders’ conference in Brussels said Pakistan was prepared to train the Afghan National Army which would help improve relations between the two nations. He said he hoped the offer would get a positive response.

“If we get more involved with the ANA (Afghan National Army) there’s more interaction and better understanding,” General Kayani said.

“We have opened all doors … It’s a win-win for Afghanistan, the United States, Isaf and Pakistan,” he said, referring to Nato’s International Security Assistance Force.

He said he believed it would take at least four years to achieve a target of a 140,000-strong Afghan force able to take over security responsibilities.

Pakistan has raised concern over a similar offer by India to train Afghan army, and the issue could become another point of conflict between the two South Asian neighbours.

Pakistan’s offer reflects Islamabad’s rising concern over Indian influence in Afghanistan. “Our strategic paradigm needs to be fully realised,” General Kayani said.

He warned that an environment hostile to Pakistan could strain its battle against militancy and extremism. He said he had conveyed the concerns and constraints of Pakistan to the Nato allies.

“There are some key issues of the conflict that needed to be fully understood and addressed.”

He said there was a need for realisation of Pakistan’s key regional position and its contribution in the war.

General Kayani said more than 140,000 Pakistani troops were now involved in fighting militants in the northwest and deployment along the Afghan border.

He said over the last seven months Pakistani military had launched 209 major and 510 minor operations in 10 regions. He said 2,273 Pakistani army officers and soldiers had been killed in the fighting so far.

General Kayani said that the military operations in South Waziristan and Swat were at present in a transitory phase — from hold to build. “We must consolidate our gains and fully stabilise the area secured lest it fall back to the terrorists,” he said.

He warned against losing sight for future operations. “Public opinion, media support, army’s capability and resolve are fundamental to our war,” he said.

General Kayani rejected the perception that Pakistan did not want to take on the militants in North Waziristan. “There is already one army division deployed there and we have taken action whenever required,” he declared

He said it was important that the military consolidated its hold in South Waziristan and other tribal regions before starting another army offensive.

Last October the army launched a major offensive in South Waziristan which had become the main bastion of Pakistani Taliban movement and Al Qaeda.

More than 30,000 troops have been involved in the operation which is said to be the biggest since Pakistan joined the US war on terror after September 11, 2001.

The troops have cleared most of the region, but there are still pockets of resistance. Many Taliban commanders have taken refuge in neighbouring Waziristan. “We have broken the myth that Waziristan cannot be controlled,” he said.

Pakistan has been facing mounting pressure from the United States to start army operation in North Waziristan which is the base for another Taliban faction.

The US and western intelligence agencies believe the area is also a base of Afghan insurgents led by Sirajuddin Haqqani. Pakistan had signed a peace deal with the Taliban faction in 2006.

General Kayani said Pakistani military’s success in South Waziristan had sent a strong message to the militants operating in North Waziristan and other areas.

“There is, however, no need at this point to start a stream roller operation in North Waziristan.”

The army chief said the large number of casualties suffered by the Pakistani security forces and economic losses had not dented the armed forces’ resolve to fight terrorism and violent extremism. “We will fight and finish the terrorism in our own interest,” General Kayani said.

He said the intelligence sharing and greater cooperation between Pakistani military and US forces had helped improve the situation. “The regular contacts between Pakistani and US military commanders have greatly helped in understanding each others’ position.”